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When should scientific evidence change our minds?

New findings, unexplained mechanisms and replication in scientific decision-making. What people think, across 4 polls and 0 votes.

Opinion Sphere@opinionsphere · 2w

Researcher scenario: a large preregistered replication finds an effect close to zero, conflicting with a small published study. Measures and population closely match. What should the journal do first?

Context

Preregistered means the team recorded its plan before seeing the results. One failed replication does not by itself prove fraud.

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Opinion Sphere@opinionsphere · 2w

Imagine you are funding geology research in 1915. Continental drift links several observations, but its proposed mechanism is unconvincing. Which project would you fund first?

Context

Wegener proposed continental drift in 1912. Its mechanism was a major objection. Later evidence helped establish plate tectonics; that does not make every rejected idea a future breakthrough.

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Opinion Sphere@opinionsphere · 2w

A laboratory can test only one promising treatment lead next. Two have equally strong early evidence: one comes from an old remedy, the other from computer design. Which deserves priority?

Context

Tu Youyou’s work on artemisinin drew on old medical texts and laboratory experiments. An old recipe is a research lead, not proof of safety or effectiveness.

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Opinion Sphere@opinionsphere · 2w

Fictional hospital: a cheap hand-cleaning routine is followed by a large fall in infections in two wards, but nobody can explain why yet. No harmful effects are known. What should the hospital do next?

Context

Semmelweis advocated handwashing in 1847 and met resistance. This simplified hospital is fictional; its evidence is not his exact study.

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Related topics

When should scientific evidence change our minds?. What people think · OpinionSphere